Amid the resurgence of U.S. protectionism, the Centre for Productivity and Prosperity (CPP) at HEC Montréal has released the 15th edition of its Productivity and Prosperity in Quebec report. The conclusion is clear: Quebec and Canada continue to suffer from a structural productivity gap that significantly limits their ability to absorb external shocks particularly U.S. tariff threats.
For Quebec businesses, this is not just a macroeconomic issue.
It is a strategic signal.
In 2023, Quebec’s standard of living reached $65,490 per capita (PPP), which is 18.6% below the average of major OECD economies. The province ranks near the bottom, ahead of only a few countries such as Japan and Spain.
Yes, the gap with Ontario has narrowed. But this “catch-up” is driven more by Ontario’s underperformance than by accelerated growth in Quebec.
The real issue remains: labor productivity in Quebec is too low.
On average, each hour worked generates $18.80 less than the OECD average.
As the Canadian dollar appreciated, export competitiveness toward the United States weakened. Many companies lost market share, unable to compete with rising Asian competition. As a result, the share of exports in GDP declined.
At the same time, businesses failed to fully leverage the stronger dollar to modernize their operations, even though a stronger currency makes imported equipment (which represents the majority of industrial investments) more affordable.
The result: Investment in machinery, equipment, and intellectual property slowed. The productivity gap persisted, and competitiveness eroded to the point where a weaker Canadian dollar is no longer sufficient to support exports.
Today, Quebec’s export share remains significantly lower than that of comparable economies such as Finland, Sweden, or Denmark, despite being at similar levels in the early 2000s.
Productivity is driven by three key factors:
However, the CPP analysis is unequivocal: Most of Quebec’s lag stems from weak labor productivity, largely due to insufficient private investment.
In 2021, Quebec companies invested $15,038 per job, $10,826 less than the OECD average.
The gap is particularly pronounced in:
And this is where robotics becomes critical.
According to the International Federation of Robotics (2025), Canada has 124 industrial robots per 10,000 workers (excluding automotive).
In comparison:
Canada only ranks ahead of the United Kingdom (63).
Although the data is not broken down by province, this ranking highlights the country’s overall technological lag. The report also notes that Canada’s domestic market remains relatively fragmented and less exposed to competition compared to the United States or the European Union.
Quebec does not lack talent or entrepreneurs. It lacks structuring, productivity-driven investment.
In a world where markets are tightening and competition is intensifying, prosperity will inevitably depend on:
The question is no longer whether we need to act.
The question is: who will act first?
Without substantial productivity gains, Quebec companies will neither be able to replace foreign imports nor capture new markets.
Source : Bilan complet pdf Source : Deslauriers, J., Gagné, R. et Paré, J. (2025). Productivité et prospérité au Québec – Bilan édition 2025, Centre sur la productivité et la prospérité – Fondation Walter J. Somers, HEC Montréal.